Monte Carlo simulation of 3/4 and 4/3 openings (5/2 splits are rerolled and excluded). Success = a hand reaching the target $ on turn 3 or 4. Buys go to the discard pile; the full deck is reshuffled before turn 3. Opening buys are planned across both turns (T2 money is known: $7 minus T1). When Secret Cave is in the opening, one starting Copper is replaced by its heirloom, Magic Lamp.
| Opening buys | Target | Hit on T3 | Hit on T4 | Hit T3 or T4 | Hit both | # hits (avg) | avg $ T3 | avg $ T4 |
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Notes: on a 3/4 opening only one of turns 1/2 has $4. With Alms the $3 turn can gain a card costing up to $4; with Amass either turn can gain an Action costing up to $5 (5-costs like Baker are otherwise unbuyable in the opening). Terminals (Baron, Smithy) are limited to one play per turn.